On September 7th, in the theme of PV price and bidding under the new situation of 2019,Tao Ye, deputy director of the Renewable Energy Development Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, predicted that the"14th Five-Year Plan"period will be more than 260gw.
Tao Ye believes that photovoltaic power generation has become a key driving force for power marketization, energy storage, microgrid, incremental distribution network,and integrated energy services. It has improved system marginal efficiency, reduced marginal cost,created energy demand, and met energy needs on the spot. Advantage .
For the prospect of PV grid-connected scale in 2019, Tao Ye said that it is necessary to comprehensively consider the multiple factors of subsidy fund support scale ,parity project progress and project carry-over scale. It is estimated that the grid-connected scale of PV in 2019 is expected to be around 38GW, and the policy expectation is clear. Under the conditions ,the size of the domestic market in 2020 can be expected. At the same time, scenery consumption is also the core factor for judging the scale of the PV market in the near-term.The power consumption of different regional power systems is different, but the peaking capacity & network transmission capacity is usually the key factor that restricts the consumption of scenery.
For the well-received “14th Five-Year(2021-2025)"PV development goal,Tao Ye introduced that by the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan”, photovoltaics will become the lowest-cost renewable energy power, and it is expected to be during the” 14th Five-Year Plan”period.The newly installed grid-connected capacity of PV is more than 260GW .
Not long ago, Wang Sicheng also made a dream about the “ fourteenth five-year plan”of photovoltaic power generation:
1.The general direction of “energy transformation”
The government, power grid enterprises and the photovoltaic industry must be consistent in their understanding and unswervingly develop renewable energy such as photovoltaic power generation. The future energy structure is a high proportion of renewable energy. This is the“world trend", that is, by 2050, Renewable energy accounts for more than 60% of primary energy, accounting for more than 80% of power consumption
2.The installed capacity is not less than 50gw per year
In order to achieve the goal of energy transformation the average annual installed capacity of photovoltaics should not be less than 50GW in the next 30 years.
3. Guaranteed consumption
During the"14th Five-Year Plan"period, we should resolve the contradiction between renewable energy and traditional energy sources in the power market. We must add 100% clean power to the newly-built units, and store the coal-fired units to allow electricity to be discharged.
4. Realization of high proportion of renewable energy
There are no technical problems that cannot be overcome; the development of photovoltaics cannot be limited on the grounds of " dissipating capacity" and"the right medicine"is needed to solve the problem of the consumption of photovoltaics and wind power.
5.photovoltaic people need to do
In the next two years, the module price will be reduced to less than 2 yuan/Wp, the system cost will be reduced to 4 yuan/w or less; through technical innovation to reduce the cost of electricity to 0. 4 yuan kWh The photovoltaic power price will be reduced to 0.1 yuan/kwh (0. 15 cents/kWh)within 10 years.
6. Responsibility of the government and the grid
On the one hand, it is necessary to eliminate non-technical costs. On the other hand, it is necessary to give greater support in planning and promoting market-oriented transactions.
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